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The migration of traditional TV to the Internet is likely to have little impact on the long distance network. The main reason is that consumers still take on the order of a decade to embrace new technologies (such as cell phones) or even improved variants of old media. Hence we should not expect traditional broadcast TV to change substantially or to migrate to new modes of distribution any time soon. Yet within much less than a decade, progress in photonics will produce an increase in the capacity of Internet backbones far beyond that required to carry all the broadcast TV signals. There will continue to be bottlenecks in the ”last mile” that will limit the migration of TV to the Internet (and this will reinforce the natural inertia of the consumer market). However, the backbones are unlikely to be an impediment. The Internet is likely to have a a much larger impact on TV than TV will have on Internet backbones. There is vastly more storage than transmission capacity, and this is likely to continue. Together with the the requirements of mobility, and the need to satisfy human desires for convenience and instant gratification, this is likely to induce a migration towards a store-and-replay model, away from the current real-time streaming model of the broadcast world. Further, HDTV may finally get a chance to come into widespread use. The flexibility of the Internet is its biggest advantage, and will allow for continued experimentation with novel services.
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